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Candlesticks do not give Targets

 

 

 

 

 

Candlesticks give excellent reversal and continuation signals. They visually depict the investor sentiment in any stock, market, commodity or currency. They will give the candlestick trader the high probability profit scenario based on the market dynamics exhibited by the bears and the bulls. However, they do not give an essential component of the trading game. And that is the Target. It is the price which the stock 'can' reach in its current trend. This is a very important part that needs to be defined before one enters into a trade. After all, how will you determine the reward-risk ratio without the target price?

This is where western technical indicators and pattern analysis comes in handy. The most common way to find price targets for stocks are:

  • Moving Averages

  • Trend lines

  • Prior support / resistance

  • Fibonacci levels

  • Gaps

 

These indicators or events are logical price targets. They are points at which the demand/supply dynamics had changed before. It is not a guarantee that the dynamics for the current trend will change this time too. But it is a high probability target.

 

The following chart shows JNPR reversing its downtrend with a Bullish Harami. Notice the downtrending resistance line. That would be a logical first target. But by the time the Harami is confirmed the next day, the stock is too close to the resistance. Would you be ok with the reward-risk ratio?

 

Buying at Point A on confirmation of the Hammer signal right on the 50 sma would be an excellent high probability situation. The target in this case would be the 200 sma. The trader who bought at Point A, would be selling at Point B after the Bearish Engulfing signal was confirmed on the 200 sma.

 

Remember, just seeing a candlestick buy signal does not mean you have to buy. Factors like reward-risk ratio play an important role in the traders success.

Chart courtesy stockcharts.com